The Dow’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 15.62, according to the WSJ Market Data Group. That is below a level of 16.99 seen during blue chips’ 2007 high and 25 during 2000’s peak. Given its components’ earnings now, the Dow would have to climb to 15542 to hit its 2007 valuation—and 22869 to hit the 2000 level.
To be sure, a quick climb to 15000 would represent one of the bigger rallies in recent history for the Dow. That price would put the benchmark 14% above where it ended last year. The benchmark hasn’t gained that much in any calendar year since 2009, when stocks were rebounding from the depths of the financial crisis.
Steven Rees, head of U.S. equity strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said he and his team are urging clients to focus on the market’s fundamental characteristics, rather than getting caught up in price levels.
“The underlying drivers of equities are corporate profit growth and return of cash to shareholders,” said Mr. Rees, whose organization oversees about $877 billion. “Recent trends in earnings have come in better than expected. Dividends are accelerating. Share repurchases are starting to pick up, and [mergers-and-acquisitions] activity is also picking up, as well. You’re starting to see American companies be a little more optimistic about their outlook.”
While the Dow remains about 5% from 15000, another red-letter day for the market is within shorter reach. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, regarded by many professional traders and investors as the true benchmark for U.S. equities, is about 1.5% off its all-time high.
Source:WSJ, OxBridge Research, Daily Stock Deals
